Minnesota Ag Connection - National/World News - 2017-18 La Nina and Winter Outlook

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2017-18 La Nina and Winter Outlook
USAgNet - 12/13/2017

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has officially declared a La Nina Advisory, as of Nov. 9.

"This means that La Nina conditions are observed and expected to continue," said Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension State Climatologist.

NOAA observes La Nina conditions using sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, Edwards explained. "For La Nina, ocean temperatures are cooler than average near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which can alter jet streams and storm tracks," she said.

Historically, La Nina has brought colder than average temperatures in winter for South Dakota. "There are varying strengths of La Nina, from weak to strong. Overall the colder temperatures are fairly consistent in any La Nina winter," Edwards said. "What is more variable is snowfall."

In weak La Nina events, there has historically been above average snowfall in the Northern Plains states. In strong La Nina events, this is not usually the case.

For our winter season ahead, Edwards said a weak La Nina is expected. "Thus the climate outlook shows an increased chance of above average precipitation," she explained.

This potential increase is snowfall is more likely to occur in mid- to late winter, or around January and February of 2018.

Despite the very dry November, there was recently a large pattern shift in early December, which is now starting to look more like a typical La Nina pattern.

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