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Slower Tax Refunds and Weather Affect April Retail Sales
USAgNet - 05/17/2019

Retail sales were down 0.2 percent in April seasonally adjusted from March but up 5.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year, the National Retail Federation reported. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Slower tax refunds and weather may have been key factors impacting April's numbers, but the fundamentals remain positive, particularly in long-term comparisons," NRF Chief Economic Jack Kleinhenz said, citing flooding in the middle of the country and blizzards and extreme temperature swings elsewhere along with a soft housing market that impacted sales of furniture, appliances and building materials. "Despite there being a lot of volatility in the data from month to month, the long-term comparisons look good and the three-month average in particular is getting stronger. We think we remain on track to meet our projections."

The shift of Easter and Passover from March to April this year gave less of a month-over-month bump in spending than expected, but contributed to April's strong year-over-year increase, Kleinhenz said.

As of April, the three-month moving average was up 2.9 percent over the same period a year ago, compared with 2.6 percent in March. April's results build on gains of 1.1 percent month-over-month and 1 percent year-over-year seen in March.

NRF's numbers are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which said today that overall April sales -- including auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants -- were also down 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from March but were up 3.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

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