By Scout Nelson
Researchers have developed a new forecasting model that may help farmers, land managers, and scientists better prepare for climate change and extreme weather events. A recent Minnesota Pollution Control Agency report estimated that climate change could cost Minnesota more than $20 billion each year by 2040, increasing concerns about environmental stability and agricultural productivity.
Forest Isbell, lead author and associate professor at the University of Minnesota College of Biological Sciences, along with the research team, published the study in the journal Nature after successfully testing the forecasting model during a major drought in central Minnesota in 2021. Researchers at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve had already predicted how different grassland plots would respond before the drought occurred. The forecasts were later found to be accurate within about 3%.
The study focused on understanding ecosystem stability and how ecosystems respond to disturbances such as drought. Researchers examined four important factors: resistance, recovery, resilience, and temporal stability. Scientists noted that researchers have studied these relationships since the 1980s. Resistance measures how little an ecosystem changes during a disturbance, while recovery measures how quickly it returns to normal afterward. Resilience describes how close the system remains to normal shortly after disturbance, and temporal stability measures long-term consistency over time.
Scientists used ecosystem data collected from 1996 through 2020 to develop the forecasting model. The study found that long-term ecosystem stability is strongly connected to short-term resistance during climate events. Researchers also discovered that one major wet climate event in 2002 helped predict ecosystem stability over the following 25 years. The research further showed that at least 17 years of ecological data were needed before ecosystem-level forecasts became statistically dependable.
Researchers explained that the model may eventually help improve the resilience of farms, forests, grasslands, and aquatic ecosystems facing climate extremes. The forecasting system could also support better drought management and environmental planning for farmers and land managers.
“Ecologists have long measured how ecosystems respond after droughts and other climate extremes,” said Forest Isbell, lead author and associate professor at the University of Minnesota College of Biological Sciences. “What is exciting here is that we can begin to forecast which ecosystems are more likely to withstand a future drought before it happens — offering a powerful tool for management and planning in the future.”
Photo Credit: gettyimages-tlillico
Categories: Minnesota, Weather