By Jamie Martin
USDA’s August WASDE, the first to incorporate field measurements for 2025/26, sets a more defined tone for fall. Corn stands out: yield is estimated at a record 188.8 bushels per acre with more harvested acres, lifting production to 16.7 billion bushels. Use increases for feed, ethanol, and exports, yet supplies expand faster, pushing ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average price slips to $3.90 per bushel, and nearby 2025 futures moved under $4 after the report.
Soybeans reflect stronger yields but tighter acreage. At 53.6 bushels per acre and 80.1 million harvested acres, production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels. With slower early export sales, USDA reduces exports to 1.7 billion bushels. Ending stocks land at 290 million, while the season-average price remains $10.10. Futures firmed on release-day trading.
For wheat, yield nudges up to 52.7 bushels per acre, but reduced harvested area pegs production at 1.93 billion bushels. Domestic use is trimmed while exports increase to 875 million bushels, leaving ending stocks at 869 million. The season-average farm price eases to $5.30, and benchmark futures printed fresh lows.
Outside the big three, rice production rises to 208.5 million cwt, ending stocks tighten to 44.6 million cwt, and the farm price lifts to $14.20/cwt. Cotton output falls to 13.2 million bales on regional setbacks, cutting stocks to 3.6 million bales and supporting a 64-cent price. Sugar supplies improve, raising the stocks-to-use ratio to 17.75%.
Profitability remains challenging. USDA’s crop Prices Received Index was up 9.2% year over year in June, but the Prices Paid Index rose 7.1%, and 2024 farm production expenses totaled $477.6 billion—just shy of 2023’s record. Spending is led by the Midwest, followed by the Plains, West, Atlantic, and South. With large supplies and elevated inputs, producers should lean on diversified marketing, disciplined cost control, and strong risk-management tools to navigate the season.
Photo Credit:vecteezy-bergamont
Categories: National