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Grain Outlook and Farm Finances

Grain Outlook and Farm Finances


By Scout Nelson

The January 28 Strategic Farming Let’s Talk Crops program focused on crop economics, farm profitability, and grain market outlooks. The session brought together agricultural economics experts to explain current challenges and future expectations for crop production in clear and practical terms.

The discussion began with an overview of crop production in Minnesota. Data from recent years showed that the state remains a national leader in crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar beets, oats, and dry beans. These rankings highlight the importance of crop production to the regional economy.

Attention then turned to the cost of production. Using data from the University of Minnesota Farm Financial Database, speakers explained that production costs for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat in 2024 were higher than current local cash prices. Rising expenses for fertilizer, machinery, fuel, and chemicals have increased financial pressure.
 
The large difference between high-cost and low-cost operations shows why understanding individual production costs is essential for long-term planning. Useful tools and resources are available through the University of Minnesota Extension Agricultural Business Management Team at  https://extension.umn.edu/managing-farm.

Long-term profitability trends were also reviewed. Over the past 25 years, farm income has gone through strong and weak periods. While incomes were solid in 2021 and 2022, they declined sharply in 2023 and 2024. Inflation-adjusted income levels in 2024 were among the lowest in decades, with most regions reporting reduced profits.

The program also explained financial relief options. The Farmer Bridge Assistance program announced in 2025 offers per-acre payments based on planted acres to help offset expected losses. Farm Bill programs such as ARC and PLC were reviewed, along with recent changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. These updates include higher payment limits, improved revenue guarantees, and adjustments to reference prices.

Market outlook discussions highlighted record corn production and rising stocks, suggesting stable but less volatile prices ahead. Corn demand remains strong, supported by feed use, ethanol, and exports. Soybean markets showed steady production and growing domestic processing, though export competition remains strong.

The session concluded with audience questions and emphasized careful planning, cost awareness, and realistic expectations in a challenging economic environment. The next Strategic Farming Let’s Talk Crops session will be held on February 11 at 9 a.m., focusing on new forecasting tools for crops and pest management.

Photo Credit: pexels-fauxels

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Categories: Minnesota, Business, Government & Policy

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