It's trying to rain at the moment in Crookston. So far it has only really wetted the sidewalk. The forecast remains, however, hopeful for rain throughout the region. Does that mean that a 5-alarm fire for leaf diseases and or Fusarium head blight is imminent? Just like a single robin doesn't make spring, a single weather system does not make for widespread and economic levels of leaf diseases or Fusarium head blight. The disease forecasting that is part of the NDAWN system in the tri-state area and the National Fusarium Risk Tool are weather-based models that try to quantify how good the conditions are for individual diseases to start infections.
Two more factors make the disease triangle, namely the presence of a host that is susceptible to a disease and the presence of the disease spores to cause infections. It is especially the latter that might be missing at this point, given the very low incidence of all diseases last year, the very dry conditions throughout last year, and the continued dry weather this spring. The leaf diseases like tan spot, Septoria, leaf, and stripe rust will need two or three generations of cycles before they would be able to reach economically damaging levels, something that for the earliest heading wheat seems unlikely. Likewise, I expect the risk models for FHB to remain low even if we have 4 days with cooler, wetter weather.
I am, therefore, at this point hesitant to recommend the application of a fungicide at Feekes 10.51/the beginning of anthesis. Only if you are in an area that has received more rainfall than the rest of us, would I contemplate a fungicide application.
Source: umn.edu
Photo Credit: GettyImages-giovanni1232
Categories: Minnesota, Crops, Wheat, Weather