Minnesota Ag Connection - Hot, Dry Weather Pushes Wheat Condition to Lowest Since 1988

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Hot, Dry Weather Pushes Wheat Condition to Lowest Since 1988
Minnesota Ag Connection - 06/24/2021

Producers in North Dakota had a bit of a reprieve last weekend as temperatures trended lower towards more average values and some of the state received precipitation. Precipitation levels were generally under an inch and many areas missed out on moisture once again. Despite the short reprieve in the weather, crop conditions continue to decline. The U.S. spring wheat crop is rated 27 percent in good to excellent condition, a drop of 10 percentage points from last week and the lowest condition rating since 1988. Almost half of the U.S. crop is rated in poor to very poor condition. Condition ratings remain highest in Minnesota and Montana with 48 and 43 percent of the crop rated in good to excellent condition respectively, but these levels dropped dramatically from last week. In North Dakota, only 19 percent is rated in good to excellent condition and half is rated as poor to very poor.

Crop development continues to be pushed ahead of average due to the stress from the hot, dry conditions. About 27 percent of the U.S. spring wheat has headed out compared to 18 percent a year ago. Nearly two-thirds of the Minnesota spring wheat has headed out, 40 percentage points ahead of average. In North Dakota, 18 percent has headed out. Producers are reporting that some wheat is heading out at only 12 inches tall or even shorter in many areas. The adverse weather conditions that have persisted since planting have greatly reduced yield potential for a large portion of the crop. Yield expectations from the state's producers are low and quite variable. In areas that received some decent rainfall, producers are hoping to see an average crop if consistent moisture gets them through the growing season. Other producers are hoping for yields half of average values and others have abandoned or will abandon some of the worst wheat.

Durum conditions remain more favorable than spring wheat, especially the later planted crop that benefited from some moisture over the last month. However, the key will be consistent moisture during the rest of the growing season and yield expectations at this time are for average yields at best. Just over half of the durum crop in North Dakota is rated in good to excellent condition, a slight decline from last week. The percentage rated in poor to very poor condition increased from last week to 25 percent. The USDA crop progress report indicates that about 10 percent of the durum has not yet emerged -- likely due to dry conditions and some late planting activity. Three percent of the state's durum has headed out.

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