By Jamie Martin
China’s agreement to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year marks a modest step forward after months of stalled trade. However, it remains far below historical averages, leaving many American farmers struggling to find profitable markets.
Under the new deal, China has pledged to buy 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. Yet, with Brazil dominating global exports, many analysts remain doubtful about full delivery.
Midwestern farmers are storing more soybeans, hoping for improved prices later this winter. “Most farmers, I would say, are waiting for a better price,” said Illinois grower Brady Holst.
Meanwhile, domestic crushing — converting soybeans into oil and meal — has seen record expansion. Driven by renewable diesel demand, U.S. crushing capacity has grown 14% since 2023, with new plants in the Midwest and Great Plains.
Still, this growth cannot fully replace lost Chinese demand. “The limit there is always going to be that physical capacity, and we just don't have the physical capacity to increase crush enough this year to offset China,” said Scott Gerlt, an economist with the American Soybean Association.
Farmers in southern states like Illinois and Missouri benefit from proximity to crushing facilities and river export routes, while northern producers face tougher logistics. Despite strong yields, low prices continue to pressure farm incomes.
For now, U.S. farmers are relying on storage, processing, and patience as they navigate a shifting global soybean market.
Photo Credit: istock-ds70
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